Casino Traffic Impact Study

Executive Summary

The purpose of this study was to determine the impacts that a casino in Bridgeport, CT would likely have on traffic conditions along I-95, Route 15 and other major roadways in the South Western Region of Connecticut. This study addresses concerns of the South Western Regional Planning Agency (SWRPA) and its member municipalities (Darien, Greenwich, New Canaan, Norwalk, Stamford, Weston, Westport and Wilton) that have developed in response to the Golden Hill Tribe of the Paugussett Indian Nation’s plans to build a casino in the Bridgeport area. This casino is contingent upon the tribe gaining the federal recognition status that they are currently pursuing.

For this study, SWRPA retained Buckhurst Fish & Jacquemart, Inc. (BFJ) to update and expand a 1995 traffic impact study for a Bridgeport Casino that ultimately did not gain approval from the State of Connecticut. For the purposes of the new study, we assumed a casino with 15,000 gaming positions. This is approximately 35% larger than Foxwoods Casino was in 1997. We consider this to be a conservative estimate of the potential size of the casino. According to the Golden Hill Paugussetts’ web site outlining their casino plans, the casino would have 25,000 parking spaces plus 10,000 to 12,000 additional parking spaces for a Bingo Hall, Convention Center and Sports Coliseum. This compares to approximately 19,000 parking spaces at Foxwoods in 1997.

A casino in Bridgeport would significantly impact traffic in South Western Connecticut not only because of its size, but because of its unique traffic characteristics. Unlike most other uses, casinos generate traffic 24 hours a day, seven days a week, 365 days a year. In addition, the hourly distribution of the inbound casino traffic overlaps with the hourly distribution of northbound traffic on I-95, i.e. the peak periods of traffic generation for the casino are the same as the existing peak periods of congestion on I-95. (See Figure 2.) The vehicle trips to and from a casino are also much longer than other types of trips such as home to work, shopping etc. Finally, because of the regional demographics, a casino in Bridgeport would attract a very high proportion of trips from the southwest.

Based on the 15,000 gaming positions and conservative estimates of modal distribution, roughly 42,000 vehicle trips are expected to result from the casino on an average Friday over a 24-hour period. This is based on a modal split where 50% of trips from the west, 20% of the trips from the north and east, 60% of the local trips and 100% of the trips from Long Island are made on public transportation. It is important to note that the existing capacity of public transportation would not be able to accommodate such high volumes without significant service enhancements to and from each of the areas. The above assumptions mean that for instance 16,800 additional person trips would be added to the train service on a typical Friday. Currently, only about 30% of the trips to Foxwoods occur on public transportation.

The additional vehicle miles of travel added by the Bridgeport casino to the highway network are equivalent to the vehicle miles of travel of six Danbury malls (1.5 million square feet each) or 50 UBS Warburg Corporate Headquarters (560,000 square feet each).

Approximately 11,000 of the 42,000 daily vehicle trips would be added to northbound I-95. In the hours where demand exceeds capacity, vehicles will be forced to shift to other travel times, travel routes or travel modes. Even assuming that 50% of the casino related volumes from the west would occur on public transportation, the over-capacity vehicles would be forced to shift to other time periods. With these shifts, bumper to bumper conditions on a summer Friday would increase from 6 hours today to 14 hours a day, roughly from 9 AM to 11 PM. Between noon and midnight the average speed on northbound I-95 traffic would decrease from 46 mph to 34 mph. Traffic counts and speed surveys show that in recent years, the practical capacity of I-95 has decreased due to the more frequent occurrences of severe bumper-to-bumper traffic at slow speeds. If the capacity of I-95 decreases further as a result of the casino congestion, traffic conditions could be even worse than our estimate of 14 hours of congestion on a typical summer Friday. A substantial amount of traffic is expected to shift to local roads such as the Boston Post Road.

On northbound Route 15, the impacts of the additional traffic are also substantial. On a summer Friday, we have about 2 hours where traffic volumes exceed capacity. Traffic during these hours will likely shift to other time periods resulting in approximately 4 hours on a typical summer Friday of bumper to bumper conditions in the northbound direction. We estimate that the average speed in the northbound direction will decrease from 54 mph to 49 mph between noon and midnight on summer Fridays.

The impact on other roadways would be less dramatic than the impact of the casino traffic on current I-95 and Route 15 northbound traffic conditions. Whereas I-95 and Route 15 volume increases would be in the range of 13%-14%, the volume increases in the other locations we studied would be between 1% and 9%. These increases are not expected to create capacity problems, however there will be a noticeable change in the amount of traffic on these roadways.

The traffic generated by the proposed casino would produce increased emissions of three key pollutants: volatile organic compounds (VOCs), nitrogen oxides (NOx), and carbon monoxide (CO). VOC and NOx emissions are of concern because of their role in the formation of ozone, a pollutant of concern on a regional basis. CO emissions are of greater concern at the local level (i.e., near the source). Using an analysis year of 2006, the emissions analysis indicates that the casino would result in an additional 0.4 tons per day of VOCs on the combined highway system of Southwestern Connecticut (an increase of 9.4 percent.) This would consume much of the remaining VOC emissions budget for the region leaving only 0.3 tons of the budget reserve. The casino would not have a significant impact on the NOx or CO budgets.

One of the most dramatic impacts of a casino in Bridgeport is the potential effect on the number of crashes on I-95 and on the Merritt Parkway, since the casino traffic is more prone to accidents than the regular traffic. More than 1,100 new crashes could occur each year on I-95 and the Merritt Parkway combined as a result of the casino-related traffic volumes. Nearly 4 (3.6) additional fatalities would occur on these highways caused by the casino traffic. The cost of these crashes is staggering at $18.7 million for the additional crashes (1999 dollars).

The travel delays caused by the casino traffic also have a significant impact on the region’s economy. Direct economic costs related to increased traffic delays in the region have been estimated at a total of $64 million per year (in 2001 dollars). This cost only includes the annual time loss of the traffic circulating in the region. A majority of this cost will be borne by commuters, business travelers and consumers, with the balance being borne by local businesses. In addition to the direct costs to the region, there are the indirect or induced costs related to the delays and reduced accessibility: relocation costs of businesses and households, loss of employee productivity and business earnings, property value reductions due to reduced accessibility, etc. These indirect or induced costs are expected to be substantial, such that the total economic disbenefits may be more than double the direct costs related to the delays. A more detailed economic impact analysis should be undertaken to estimate the full economic costs of the proposed casino.

Buckhurst Fish & Jacquemart Inc. (2001). Bridgeport Casino Traffic Impacts on the South Western Region of Connecticut, Final Report: July 2001. (pp. 2-3) New York: Buckhurst Fish Jacquemart Inc.

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